Congratulations to Alice Oveson - PNAS Paper
UMD Mathematicians predict the dramatic impact of a proposal to repeal Florida's measles vaccine mandate.
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| Computer rendering of the measles virus. Credit: AdobeStock. |
Measles is making a comeback. Once considered eliminated from the United States, the disease has been popping up around the country as vaccine coverage declines.
Now, as Florida considers dropping its measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine mandate for school attendance, a new University of Maryland study predicts that such a policy change could spark the largest measles epidemic in the United States in nearly 50 years. The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on September 28, 2026.
“Measles is one of the most contagious human pathogens, and we’ve seen a striking 650% increase in cases just between 2024 and 2025,” said paper co-author Abba Gumel, a Distinguished University Professor of Mathematics at UMD. “This is an extremely important case study with ramifications well beyond the southeastern United States.”
"Importantly, we also learned that vaccinating one child is three times more effective at reducing transmission than vaccinating one adult,” said the paper’s first author, Alice Oveson, a Ph.D. student in Applied Mathematics & Statistics, and Scientific Computation at UMD. "
Please join us in congratulating Alice and Dr. Abba!